Fragmented monetary paths, new trade alignments, and tech-driven market sentiment are creating a more uneven backdrop for growth.
Our latest installment in Moody’s 2026 Outlooks series covers the Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2026, and examines how structural shifts in central bank policy, global trade relationships, and tech-driven equity markets are shaping global growth and risk. These drivers sit at the heart of the report, which examines how macroeconomic and AI developments are reshaping risks across regions and sectors. Global growth is set to hold steady at a subdued pace, with advanced economies looking on course for only modest expansion, and emerging markets retaining stronger momentum. Trade tensions between China and the United States have raised the prospect of deeper decoupling, yet other economies are moving to reinforce their own relationships and diversify exposure. The result is a sharply varied macroeconomic forecast across the G20 and the rest of the world. While growth so far has held up against persistent headwinds, the medium-term pace is settling lower as structural pressures accumulate. Uneven policy cycles, geopolitical strain, and vulnerabilities in the financial system are beginning to carve visible fault lines across regions and sectors. |
Key takeaways from the Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2026:
Resilience amid headwinds. Global growth slows but holds steady. Global GDP grew 2.4% in 2025, slightly above expectations. Advanced economies cooled slightly, but emerging markets continued to expand. Despite trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal support and consumer strength helped offset the impact.
Monetary policy divergence is reshaping global bond markets. The Fed is easing, the European Central Bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and the Bank of Japan is hiking rates. The aftermath increases volatility shifting the flow of capital and sovereign risk in vulnerable economies.
Trade realignments are redrawing supply chains. The possibility of US-China decoupling has increased as restrictions multiply. Other economies are responding by building new partnerships. The EU’s agreements with Indonesia and India, along with UK-India negotiations, signal a shift that could diversify supply networks and alter tariff exposures across sectors.
Tech-driven equity surges carry systemic risk. AI optimism has helped propel a powerful rally in global technology equities. Valuations have become stretched. A sudden reversal would risk broad spillovers into investment and employment. The comparison with the dot-com cycle is imperfect but instructive because leverage and market concentration can amplify stress.
Read the 2026 Global Macroeconomic Outlook.
Interested in reading more outlooks for 2026? Visit our Outlooks hub.
Unlock deeper insight with Moody’s Research Assistant
Moody’s Research Assistant is our GenAI tool that fits directly into your research workflow, making it easier to surface insights from Moody’s vast economic data and analysis. Whether you’re tracking shifts in growth, following the latest policy trends, or exploring how trade and refinancing risks are evolving, the platform helps you connect the dots faster across global markets and sectors.
To help you make the most of the Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2026, we've assembled a set of high-impact prompts that are designed to support your analysis of this year’s most important macroeconomic questions and enable you to turn data into strategic insight:
- Prompt: "In terms of GDP, how has the global economy performed in 2025? How does this compare to Moody's previously made predictions? What factors have contributed to GDP resilience and what are the key drivers behind the projected slowdown moving forward?”
Why is this prompt important? 2025 showed tremendous resilience amid turbulence. Though global GDP growth slowed to 2.4%, advanced economies were steady and emerging markets had momentum. The prompt unpacks why growth didn’t collapse despite tariffs and uncertainty, and what’s behind the projected slowdown to 2.5%-2.6% in 2026-27.
Why try this prompt? It helps you identify which economies are most vulnerable to rating downgrades and why markets may be underestimating these risks.
- Prompt: "How are diverging central bank policies affecting global bond markets?"
Why is this prompt important? The Fed is easing, the ECB is nearing end of cycle, and the BoJ is hiking. Divergence of monetary policy is causing ripple effects across global bond markets. Long-term yields have surged to 2008 levels before stabilizing, reflecting fiscal and geopolitical concerns.
Why try this prompt? This prompt helps you analyze how policy divergence drives volatility, investor behavior, and capital flows, unpacking what it means for portfolio strategies and sovereign risk.
- Prompt: How might new trade agreements outside the US-China orbit reshape global supply chains?
Why is this prompt important? Amid ongoing tensions between US and China, other economies are forging new trade pacts. These agreements could redraw supply chain maps.
Why try this prompt? Assess how diversification strategies and tariff reductions might shift manufacturing hubs, boost competitiveness, and influence global trade patterns.
- Prompt: What are the risks of a tech equity market correction and its potential global spillover?
Why is this prompt important? AI optimism could be fueling a tech-boom fire as valuations appear to be stretched. A correction could trigger global shock, cutting investment and employment.
Why try this prompt? This prompt lets you evaluate systemic risks, and whether today’s tech surge echoes the dot-com bubble on a larger scale.
For more prompt ideas and detailed guidance, you can also visit our Research Assistant prompting hub.
As the global economic environment becomes more fragmented and complex, timely analysis and forward-looking perspectives are essential. Moody’s remains committed to providing the insight and tools you need to navigate uncertainty and seize new opportunities in 2026 and beyond. For more research, insights, and forecasts for the year ahead, explore the Outlooks hub.