Hurricane Melissa: Live blog

19:00 UTC - Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The full extent of Melissa’s damage and impact in Jamaica is not yet clear, but as the sun rose across the island this morning, the first reports of damage and flooding emerged, and in some places it was as catastrophic as feared. Our thoughts continue to be with the entire country and population as the aftermath of this unprecedented event unfolds.

The Prime Minister of Jamaica, Andrew Holness, has already declared the island a “disaster area” and stated that recovery and relief operations will commence later today. While Melissa has now moved away from the island, local authorities are still warning residents to remain sheltered because of the continued risk of heavy rainfall that could produce additional flooding and landslides.

Verified images, videos, and reports from local and international media suggest areas in parishes west of the capital, Kingston, have been significantly impacted, with reports of collapsed infrastructure, widespread flooding, damaged properties, downed trees, and washed-out roads. Some communities may be isolated for days.

In St. Elizabeth Parish, where Melissa made landfall, the damage is reportedly extensive, with much of the coastal district underwater and reports of damaged hospitals, residential properties, and commercial units.

Sangster International Airport, in Montego Bay on the northwest coast of Jamaica, was impacted by Melissa’s strongest winds and has reportedly sustained major damage and flooding.

Close to 15,000 people resided in emergency shelters across the country overnight, according to local authorities. Many people reportedly sought shelter at a police station in the city of Black River amid reports of the extensive damage and coastal storm surge flooding in St. Elizabeth Parish.

According to local reports, at its peak, more than 500,000 customers were without power as Melissa crossed western Jamaica. Internet outages have also affected thousands. Efforts to reconnect the power and telecommunications are expected to commence today.

The center of Melissa emerged off the northern coast of Jamaica at around 21:00 UTC (16:00 local time) on Tuesday, October 28, as a powerful Category 4 major hurricane.

Cuba landfall

Hurricane Melissa continued northeast and then made landfall as a Category 3 major hurricane near the city of Chivirico in eastern Cuba at around 07:10 UTC (03:10 local time) on Wednesday, October 29. At this landfall, Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour (195 km/hr) and a central pressure of 952 hPa.

Hurricane Melissa is the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) to make direct landfall over eastern Cuba since Matthew in 2016. The hurricane delivered damaging winds, widespread heavy rainfall, flooding, and a dangerous storm surge to parts of eastern Cuba.

Ahead of its landfall, Cuban authorities reportedly evacuated 735,000 people from its eastern provinces and declared a “state of alert.”

After crossing eastern Cuba, Melissa is expected to approach and cross the central and southeastern Bahamas as a Category 2 hurricane later today, Wednesday, October 29. Evacuation orders have already been issued for six islands, including Acklins and Crooked Island, as officials prepare for major flooding and a possible 8 feet (2.4 meters) storm surge.

HWind analysis

Seven large hotel resorts, representing a total insured value of more than $1.5 billion, experienced over 90 miles per hour winds (3-second peak gust) according to our HWind cumulative footprint (see below). This represents wind speeds just below hurricane strength and greater, the wind level at which building components such as roof tiles, signage, windows, and lightweight structures can begin to fail.

One hotel resort (Sandals South Coast) experienced particularly high wind speeds with peak gusts over 150 miles per hour. This represents the minimum design wind speed in Jamaica, although hotel resorts are likely to have even higher reliability and safety margins in structural design.

The closest historical analog to Hurricane Melissa is Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, previously the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica on record. However, it is worth noting that while there are some similarities between the storms, there are some key differences.

Firstly, while Gilbert was weaker at landfall in Jamaica (a category 3 major hurricane), its landfall just to the west of Kingston meant that the highest wind speeds were experienced in the most populated areas on the island, as compared to Melissa, which made landfall within a lower exposure region. Flood impacts are also likely to be more pronounced for Melissa due to the slow-moving nature of the storm.

17:30 UTC - Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Hurricane Melissa made landfall as a Category 5 major hurricane near New Hope in southwestern Jamaica at around 17:00 UTC (12:00 local time) on Tuesday, October 28. At landfall, Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour (295 km/hr) and a central pressure of 892 hPa.

Melissa is one of the most powerful hurricane landfalls on record in the North Atlantic basin. Our thoughts are with the entire country and population as this unprecedented event unfolds.

Here is the HWind snapshot at landfall:

Figure 1: Moody's HWInd snapshot at 17:00 UTC, Tuesday, October 28, showing Hurricane Melissa's landfall on Jamaica's southwest coast

Synopsis: As of 17:00 UTC (12:00 local time) on Tuesday, October 28, Melissa exhibited maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour (295 km/hr) and a minimum central pressure of 892 hPa as it made landfall, based on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

• With a pressure of 892 hPa, Melissa is tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the third most intense North Atlantic hurricane on record (by central pressure).
• Its peak intensity of 185 miles per hour (295 km/hr) makes Melissa the joint-second strongest hurricane by wind speed in the North Atlantic basin on record.
• Melissa is only the seventh hurricane in the North Atlantic to reach a central pressure lower than 900 hPa.
• NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected sustained winds as high as 215 miles per hour (346 km/hr) with gusts as high as 252 miles per hour (406 km/hr) in the lowest 492 feet (150 meters) of Melissa’s southern eyewall.
• Melissa is the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica since recordkeeping began in 1851 and has surpassed Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall in Jamaica as a high-end Category 3 major hurricane in September 1988. 
• With this landfall, Melissa is the first Category 4 or 5 major hurricane to make landfall on the island on record.

Melissa has tied Dorian (2019) as the strongest landfalling North Atlantic hurricane on record (185 miles per hour, 295 km/hr)

• Melissa is the third Category 5 major hurricane in the North Atlantic in 2025, following Erin and Humberto. This marks only the second time on record that the basin has registered three or more Category 5 major hurricanes in a single season, following 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma).
• Melissa is the 45th Category 5 major hurricane in the North Atlantic since recordkeeping began in 1851. Five of the 45 have occurred in the past two seasons (2024: Beryl and Milton; 2025: Erin, Humberto, and Melissa)

Based on the HWind Real-Time products created so far for Melissa:

• More than 57,000 individual observational data points have been utilized across 10+ data sources (surface and non-surface) - see chart below.

12:00 UTC - Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), which is a measure of the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone, was estimated to be 45 Terajoules (TJ) for winds greater than tropical storm-force, and 14 TJ for winds greater than hurricane-force. For context, this is comparable to Milton (2024) and Ian (2022) as they approached landfall.  

Figure 3: Moody's HWInd snapshot at 12:00 UTC, Tuesday, October 28, showing Hurricane Melissa's approach to Jamaica

We began producing HWind forecasting products for Melissa one week ago, on October 21.

Forecast scenarios depicting 1) a direct landfall in Jamaica at hurricane status and 2) non-zero probability for major hurricane-force winds were produced as early as October 23. Forecast scenarios showing a major hurricane landfall in Jamaica were produced on October 24.       

Figure 3: Moody's HWInd forecast issued at 00:00 UTC, Thursday, October 23, showing potential wind footprints for selected track scenarios for Hurricane Melissa

As of Tuesday morning, October 28, HWind track forecasts (10) reflected a tighter range of potential landfall points in Jamaica (see below), and a large portion of the island at risk of major hurricane-force winds. 

Figure 4: Moody's HWInd forecast for 06:00 UTC, Tuesday, October 28, showing potential wind track scenarios and probabilities for Hurricane Melissa