Severe convective storms pose distinct challenges for modelers due to their highly variable severity, ability to cross borders, and complex spatial and temporal footprints. Typically, risk management for these events relies on historical data alone, which may result in inefficient capacity use and biased risk assessments due to over- or underreporting.
To address this challenge, Moody’s has designed powerful severe convective storm modeling capabilities to assist in developing effective and profitable strategies for managing risk from severe convective storm.
Combining the latest scientific research and data, we provide a comprehensive solution for assessing convective storm risk from isolated thunderstorms to multi-day, multi-state, and multi-peril storms.
The Moody’s RMS North America Severe Convective Storm HD Models set a new benchmark for understanding and managing one of the region’s most complex and costly peril sets. Developed in close collaboration with clients, scientific experts, and industry partners, these next-generation models deliver a more accurate, transparent, and actionable view of evolving hail, tornado, and wind risks amid rising losses.
By delivering deeper visibility into key risk drivers and greater control over model assumptions, HD models reduce model miss and support more confident decision-making. From rate making to capital planning, these models are designed to improve the accuracy and impact of your most critical business strategies. It’s not just about better models — it’s about better outcomes.
Moody’s RMS Europe Severe Convective Storm HD Model provides a complete, high-resolution outlook of convective storm events built on 50,000 simulation years.
One consistent model is available for 17 countries in Europe, helping users understand the cross-country correlation of convective storm events.
The model's robust HD framework allows for time-based treaty terms like hours clauses and aggregate terms as well as temporal considerations such as seasonality of events — an important feature given that European convective storms generally occur in the midlatitudes in summer.
Moody’s RMS Australia Severe Convective Storm Model covers the Greater Sydney region, where approximately 70% of the country’s SCS historical losses have occurred.
The model's stochastic event set is built on 100,000 simulation years and includes sub-perils for hail, tornadoes, and downburst wind, with the latter two combined into a single wind sub-peril.
Our models are the first on the market that implicitly account for losses caused by lightning, which can add anywhere from 5% (single-family dwellings) to 80% (telecommunications) to the average annual loss of certain occupancy types.
Our severe convective storm models use a hybrid methodology that combines the strengths of statistical and numerical modeling techniques with historical data and claims analysis.
This approach helps you fill in the gaps and biases arising from incomplete claims and historical data records and to assess potential future losses in regions that have yet to sustain losses.
Our models are among the first on the market with separate event sets for both cat and non-cat events, providing you with a view of possible causes of losses.
Cat events are reflected within a low-frequency, high-severity event set, while non-cat events are reflected within a high-frequency, low-severity event set. Thanks to the models’ flexibility, users can activate or deactivate these distinct event sets, allowing for the isolation or aggregation of losses.
Our models help you examine losses from hail, tornado, and straight-line wind separately or together in any desired combination.
August is typically known for its atmospheric fury in the form of hurricanes. However, 35 years ago, on August 28, 1990, the only F5/EF5 tornado to occur in August ravaged portions of northeast Illinois.
A quick web search for historical events that occurred on April 11 reveals that there are many reasons why this is a historic day.
In Europe, severe convective storm (SCS) losses have become an increasing concern for the insurance and reinsurance markets, with annual losses exceeding €5 billion for three consecutive years.
Many use experience-based ratings to underwrite severe thunderstorm risk but could be missing out on the full loss picture for this complex peril. Recent trends in industry claims practices, event severity, and exposure concentration have indicated that the risk landscape is changing, suggesting that past hazard and loss patterns may not be reflective of those in the future.
In 2022, dubbed Europe's "Year of the Hailstorm," unprecedented hail events — especially in France — resulted in substantial insurance industry payouts, challenging severe convective storm models’ predictive accuracy.
Late May 2019 saw an unusually active period for severe convective storms in the US, breaking records with 13 consecutive days of tornado activity. Despite avoiding major cities, the full cost to the insurance industry remains uncertain.
Interested in learning more about our offerings? Our solutions specialists are ready to help.
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